Advertising Is a Cloud Science: The Myth of Precision in Ad Tech

In this episode of the 'not just ADZ' podcast, Erez Levin, an ad tech veteran, and I try to explore what "quality" in digital advertising really means.

Advertising has long pretended to be a clock science: something measurable, predictable, and precise. But in reality, it's a cloud science: often unpredictable, probabilistic, and shaped by dynamics we can't fully observe or control.

Yet, the industry still clings to rigid attribution models and promises of exact incrementality, even when the tools used and the quality of the outcomes are eroding before our eyes.

Cookies are hanging on, but their effectiveness is diminishing by the day. By postponing a serious confrontation with this reality, the industry is merely extending the life of a measurement approach that was never built to last. We are often essentially tossing coins and calling it the scientific method, an uncomfortable truth many would rather not acknowledge.

Erez and I discuss, and in some areas have different perspectives, what Erez calls the digital advertising "Quality Trifecta" (see diagram below).

Then we tackle another persistent myth: the notion of infinite supply. As a clear prime example of this, for years, the programmatic ecosystem has sustained itself by purchasing fake in-stream ads and marketing it as premium. But that model has a breaking point.

This conversation explores what happens when those myths start to fall apart. Not theoretically, but in a "this is already happening" kind of way.

Erez and I assess the reckoning that digital advertising faces and, more importantly, draw a vision of what building on more honest foundations might look like.

Enjoy the full video below (free registration required)!